New member of the Weekly Boxscores, Cameron Horwitz of SunTrust Robinson Humphrey is calling a highish 56 Bcf build for the week. "The higher w/w injection is largely a function of a 3 Bcfp/d w/w decline in gas-fired power generation as cooling degree days fell 14 percent on a sequential basis.  LNG send out remains anemic, coming in at less than 0.8 Bcfp/d this week," he says. "With warmer-than-normal temps expected this week and next, we have adjusted downward our Nov 1st storage estimate to 3.65 Tcf," Horwitz says.                     ***

Ron Denhardt of SEER (at 55 Bcf this week) was not impressed by the latest release of EIA's 914 data. Actually, nobody was all that impressed with the 914 stuff; most folks we spoke to are expecting a revision next time. "As indicated yesterday, the EIA 914 data showing that gross withdrawals fell 1.7% from May to June has increased our concern about the quality of (EIA) data. Data from Lippman Consulting Inc. and Bentek showed growth of .2% to .7%. Over the last six months the average monthly growth rates from the three sources range from .6% to .8% (7.4% to 9.6% per year). During the last three months, the EIA has shown a net decline in production while Bentek and LCI both show about .5% per month growth. All but about .1 Bcf/d of the EIA reported decline was because of unusual circumstances (.30 Bcf/day was lost because of Hurricane Alex and pipeline problems and Wyoming declined 0.38 Bcf/day because of plant problems. However, there are always unusual circumstances. In May .18 Bcf/d of production was lost in the Gulf offshore because of pipeline repair and .4 Bcf/d was lost in Wyoming because of repairs." AS for this week, Denhardt notes that LNG imports averaged .8 Bcf/d for the week and the average US/UK prompt month arb stood at $(2.00)/MMBtu (US prices below UK). Also, nuclear capacity utilization averaged 96.1% vs. 94.1% last week and 95.7% a year ago.

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The good folks at UBS are also expecting a seasonally low 55 Bcf build this week, largely due to the continued hot weather last week. "We estimate inventories rose to 3,107 Bcf, widening the deficit vs. 2009 to 216 Bcf and narrowing the surplus vs. the 5-year average to 143 Bcf. Last week, weather was 22% and 9% warmer than 2009 and the 5-year average, respectively. Since May, weather has been 24% and 16% warmer than last year and the 5-year average, respectively. The storage refill season has ~24% of CDDs remaining." Also, UBS says that the weather-adjusted S/D balance loosened ~0.5 Bcf/d in the week ending August 20th, but has been balanced over the last month vs. the 5-yr average but ~0.5 Bcf/d oversupplied vs. last year. We believe natural gas prices need to fall to moderate drilling activity and reduce the rate of domestic production growth (which we estimate was 3% in 2Q but are trending toward 8% YoY in 4Q). We forecast the injection season to end at 3.75 Tcf on 10/31, 0.25 Tcf above normal. "

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BENTEK projects the East Region will inject 55 Bcf this week. The total regional working gas volume in storage is now at 1,679 Bcf. This level is 1.2% above the five-year average and 5.1% below the five-year high. During the same week last year, there was a 51-Bcf net injection into storage fields in the East Region. BENTEK projects the Producing Region will have a net injection of 8 Bcf this week. The total regional volume in storage is now at 957 Bcf. This level is 9.6% above the five-year average and 11.8% below the five-year high. During the same week last year, the Producing Region posted an injection of 7 Bcf. BENTEK projects the West Region will withdraw 9 Bcf this week, bringing the total regional volume to 470 Bcf. This level is 16.0% above the five-year average and 2.2% above the five-year high. During the same week last year the region injected 6 Bcf.

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Sriram Vasudevan of Macquarie Energy in NYC is at 51 Bcf for the week. "Though many folks are leaning to the mid-50s, I am not. While weather was definitely much milder on a sequential basis my weather normalized Nat gas power burns did quite well even with milder weather-basically we are continuing to get good "demand purchase" for gas-fired plants at "sub-coal prices" in many parts of the country." He says further that even though his domestic supply scrapes showed a good surge, the Canadian "net imports" are showing a sharp y-o-y decline.  While Imports from Canada did not show much of a surprise the "Re-Exports to Ontario" from St. Claire MI was quite strong on both GLGT (almost 40% y-o-y increase) and to a lesser degree on Vector.  "Thus my S&D residual keeps me at a moderate + 51 BCF storage build for the week." Currently, his end-of-summer paths are below 3.67 Tcf (with No Hurricane adjustment). Winter paths still point to more than adequate stocks (mean of 1.65 TCF and mild winter {-1 sigma} at 1.8 TCF on higher residual) for end of winter 2010/11."